Web未来发展的十大趋势
【译者:最近需要翻译点东西,当不想写代码的时候,就翻译,免得总是看视频。文章出处:Read/WriteWeb】
由于Web2.0的出现,我们已经进入了Web时代元年。这一阶段的标志就是搜索、社交网络、在线媒体(音乐、视频等)、内容聚合(RSS)、Mashups(API)以及众多类似的服务。当下,Web的主要访问手段仍然是通过个人电脑,但我们正在逐渐通过其他的设备如移动通信设备(iPhone)或者是电视盒(XBox Live 360)来访问Web应用。
未来十年左右,Web会发生什么样的变化,又有什么新的技术是我们所能期待的呢?正如NetC在本周的调查中所评论的那样,未来十年最大的冲击就是,我们不必一定要通过一台电脑屏幕才可以访问Web应用:“你的在线活动将会跟你的会议、旅行、购物等紧密的联系在一起。以下是未来十年可能会被广泛应用到的技术,这些技术将会极大的影响到Web应用的发展。
1、智能网络
Tim Berners-Lee's爵士很久以前就已经预料到了智能网络的出现,而现在,这更像是一个神话,如同小说《白鲸》所描述的那样。简单的来说,智能网络是关于机器和机器之间进行对话和交流的,关于整个网络更加“聪明”的。或者,正如Berners-Lee自己所描述的那样:计算机“分析网络上的所有数据——数据、链接以及人与计算机之间的交互”。有时候,Berners-Lee也这样来描述智能网络:“Web应用重新组织数据,并重新利用数据。”
Alex Iskold在他的《通向智能网络之路》这本书中描述到,智能网络的核心就是创建一种全新的数据描述格式,从而使计算机可以理解事务的含义。一旦计算机具备了“智能”,它就可以自行尝试各种方法去解决复杂问题。
智能网络时代什么时候能够到来呢?实际上,目前的RDF、OWL、以及其他微数据格式已经在为智能网络搭建基础了,但如Alex在其文章中所指出的那样,正确的分解信息和人们的行为,使计算机可以理解,是需要一定的时间的。一些公司,如Hakia和Powerset,以及Alex自己的AdaptiveBlue公司都在积极的进行智能网络相关的工作。我们正在逐步靠近,但是,距离这个伟大的预言实现仍然需要几年的时间。
2、人工智能
人工智能或许是计算机历史上的终极梦想,从五十年代开始,人们就开始梦想着人工智能了,1950年,Alan Turing介绍了他发明的图灵机,测试机器与人进行对话。在网络发展的历史上,人工智能的含义就是“制造聪明的机器”,按照这个理解,人工智能和智能网络是有共通之处的。
当前,我们只是刚刚揭开了人工智能的面纱而已,Amazon.com试图在他们的任务管理服务中与Mechanical Turk合作,引入人工智能的理念。该系统允许计算机程序按照人类的智力水平来完成一个任务(妈的,翻译错了),而之前仅仅靠计算机是不可能完成的。在05年11月2日该产品发布之后……(后面完全不会翻译)
无论如何,人工智能技术是最为人所期待的,人工智能已经被“搜索2.0”公司所引入,如前面我们提到的Hakia和Powerset。Numenta是另外一家令人振奋的公司,其技术上的大拿是传奇人物Jeff Hawkins,Jeff正在试图创建一个全新的、模仿人脑的计算模型,模仿神经网络和细胞控制。简单来说,Numenta试图做的就是让计算机做到我们人类轻而易举就可以完成的工作,如识别人的脸谱,或者是识别音符。由于计算机具有人类所不能比拟的计算能力,因此,我们希望计算机在做到这些之后,可以朝更多人类无法尝试的领域前进。
3、虚拟世界 越来越多的主流媒体关注Second Life,并认为这是未来网络发展的趋势之一,但最近的一个论坛显示了其他虚拟世界的可能性,以下是虚拟世界的图形描述:

以韩国为例,随着年轻一代的成长,以及他们在网络虚拟世界的共同经验,虚拟世界在未来十年将是一个非常活跃的市场。
这不仅仅是数字生活,而是你的真实生活如何变得更加数字化。正如Alex Iskold所解释的那样,一方面,像Second Life和其他的虚拟网络游戏正在以惊人的速度增长,而另一方面我们也开始以数字化的形式来解构我们生存的世界,通过诸如Google Earth这样的技术。
4、移动网络 移动网络的发展是未来十年另外一个大事件,而在亚洲的部分地区和欧洲,移动网络的发展已经如火如荼了,今年,北美地区因为苹果公司iPhone的发布而对移动网络无比关注,而这所有的一切仅仅只是开始。未来十年,诸如通过移动设备进行GPS定位,通过移动设备获取电子地区和搜索区域内的热点地区等,将成为热点,而Google和Yahoo正在致力于移动网络应用更加简易。Nokia、索爱、微软、Palm和BlackBerry等公司已经在移动网络领域做了多年的工作,但易用性仍然是一个很大的问题。令人欣慰的是,苹果公司的iPhone在这一方面做出了革命性的变革,iPhone使得网络访问更加简单和清晰,从而使得苹果公司可以在移动网络中分得一杯羹。
5、注意力经济 注意力经济是这样的一些服务,比如个人定制新闻、个性化搜索、快讯以及购物推荐等。注意力经济所关注的是消费者的注意力所在:他们所消费的是他们所关注的东西。注意力经济中的另外一个因素是关联性。消费者关注的东西越久,就越容易被吸引住,从而也就更容易产生销售。
未来十年,这种注意力经济对网络经济的发展非常重要,我们已经在Amazon和Netflix上面已经见到了这种例证,然而,我们所见到的,仅仅是个开始。
6、网站作为Web服务 Alex Iskold在五月份的文章中曾经描述到,越来越多的网站已经成为可以整合的,整个系统既是一个平台,又是一个数据库。主流网站正在向一个Web服务转换——更有效的向世界提供信息,这种变换之路并不平坦,例如,网络的可伸缩性是一个很大的问题,而内容合法性(错了)也并不简单。不过Alex指出,网站成为一个Web服务并不是一个问题,问题是什么时候,和如何进行。
下面是网络转换的可能的形式:一些网站会像亚马逊、美味书签(del.icio.us)和Flickr那样,通过REST API向外提供信息,而其他的网站则会保持在保持他们信息自主性的基础上,通过诸如Dapper、Teqlo和Yahoo Pipes之类的Mashups服务对外开放。最终结果是网络上的非格式化信息将逐渐转化为格式化信息,从而为智能计算铺平道路。
Facebook可以算是这种案例的典型之一,或许未来十年网络服务的发展会比现在好很多,因为至少在2007年,我们所面临的仍然是“四处都是围墙”的互联网。
7、在线视频/互联网电视 在线视频和互联网电视已经取得了蓬勃的发展,但是,目前你所见的一切仅是开端。2006年10月份,Google收购了地球上最热的在线视频网站Youtube,而就在收购当月的晚一些时间,Kazaa和Skype的创始人宣称将会开发互联网电视服务,称之为Venice项目(正式发布版本名称为Joost)。2007年,Youbue继续在网络视频方面独占鳌头,而互联网电视(Internet TV)也已经开始取得了发展。
我们的博客Last100对Internet TV有一个精彩的总结,而我们R/WW的Josh Catone也在“八个互联网电视节目”的预测中贡献了三个:Joost、Babelgum和Zattoo。
公平的说,十年之后的互联网电视将与现在有翻天覆地的变化,高质量的图片、更强大的流媒体、个性化、共享以及更多的内容,未来十年将一一展现在我们面前。或许唯一的问题就是,当前的主流电视节目巨头(CNN、NBC等)如何调整才能够生存?
8、丰富的Intenet应用(Rich Internet Apps) 以当前混合Web/桌面应用的发展形式来看,未来的RIA(Rich Internet Apps)将持续发展。Adobe的AIR平台(Adobe集成运行环境)是其中的领导者,同时还有微软的Windows Presentation Foundation,以及Laszlo公司的开源OpenLaszlo平台,以及其他几家公司纷纷提供RIA平台。既Ajax火热之后,什么将会成为新的“2.0”,令人关注。
Ryan Stewart在2006年4月份(当时他还没有加盟Adobe)写给R/WW的文章中指出:“RIA允许用户和计算机之间进行更好的交互,以及更能够吸引用户投入其中,这意味着开发人员可以将更多的注意力投入到用户的体验之中。当前是加入新互联网的最好时机之一,因为用户界面最终要与内容结合在一起,才会更有吸引力。”
去年的过程已经证实了Ryan所言非虚,Adobe和微软竞相在RIA领域发布产品,而相信未来会有更多的新产品发布。
9、国际网络(International Web) 2007年,美国仍然是互联网的主要市场,然而未来十年,将会发生很大的变化。中国是被广为提及的互联网增长迅速的市场,而其他的人口大国,如印度和非洲的国家,在互联网的应用上也将会取得快速发展。
对于大多数Web2.0应用和网站来说(包括我们R/WW),美国市场超过了50%的份额,而2006年comScore的报告指出,3/4的网络流量是国际化的。comScore指出,美国的25个顶尖的网站中的14个的访问量都是国外用户多于国内用户,其中包括了最强的五个:Yahoo、时代华纳网络、微软、Google和eBay。
然后,就目前的统计来看,从国外市场获得的收益仍然不够大,而未来的十年,或许收益主要来自于国外市场。
10、个性化定制 2007年是个性化非常强的一年,尤其是以Google为例。R/WW在Google的个性化定制上也起到了一定的推广作用。许多Web2.0的公司和网站仍将个性化作为一个很重要的内容,从last.fm到MyStrands以及Yahoo主页等等。
未来十年,在个性化方面将有什么发展呢?我们访问了Sep Kamvar,Google个性化定制方面的顶级工程师,未来是否会存在一个个性化的PageRank系统?他说:
我们有很多不同层面的个性化功能,对那些已经启用了Google Web搜索历史的用户来说,我们有最深层次的定制,但即使是那些没有启用Google Web搜索历史的用户,我们仍然会根据你的国籍来进行个性化。未来,你越多使用Google的应用,Google就越会根据你的需求,展现你所希望的内容。
如无意外的话,这将是Google在个性化方面发展的一个声明——当然,Google要首先处理好如何保护用户的隐私问题。
结论 以上是我们对网络技术未来十年发展的预测,你以为如何?你认为哪些技术会在未来十年成为主流呢?期待你的讨论。
译者:翻译这些IT文章挺痛苦的,不过,如果不翻译的话,实在是搞不懂作者在说什么,下面是原文,希望不要差之千里吧。
from Read/WriteWeb by Richard MacManus
We're well into the current era of the Web, commonly referred to as Web 2.0. Features of this phase of the Web include search, social networks, online media (music, video, etc), content aggregation and syndication (RSS), mashups (APIs), and much more. Currently the Web is still mostly accessed via a PC, but we're starting to see more Web excitement from mobile devices (e.g. iPhone) and television sets (e.g. XBox Live 360).
What then can we expect from the next 10 or so years on the Web? As NatC commented in this week's poll, the biggest impact of the Web in 10 years time won't necessarily be via a computer screen - "your online activity will be mixed with your presence, travels, objects you buy or act with." Also a lot of crossover will occur among the 10 trends below (and more) and there will be Web technologies that become enormously popular that we can't predict now.
Bearing all that in mind, here are 10 Web trends to look out for over the next 10 years...
1. Semantic Web
Sir Tim Berners-Lee's vision for a Semantic Web has been The Next Big Thing for a long time now. Indeed it's become almost mythical, like Moby Dick. In a nutshell, the Semantic Web is about machines talking to machines. It's about making the Web more 'intelligent', or as Berners-Lee himself described it: computers "analyzing all the data on the Web – the content, links, and transactions between people and computers." At other times, Berners-Lee has described it as "the application of weblike design to data" - for example designing for re-use of information.
As Alex Iskold wrote in The Road to the Semantic Web, the core idea of the Semantic Web is to create the meta data describing data, which will enable computers to process the meaning of things. Once computers are equipped with semantics, they will be capable of solving complex semantical optimization problems.
So when will the Semantic Web arrive? The building blocks are here already: RDF, OWL, microformats are a few of them. But as Alex noted in his post, it will take some time to annotate the world's information and then to capture personal information in the right way. Some companies, such as Hakia and Powerset and Alex's own AdaptiveBlue, are actively trying to implement the Semantic Web. So we are getting close, but we are probably a few years off still before the big promise of the Semantic Web is fulfilled.
Semantic Web pic by dullhunk
2. Artificial Intelligence
Possibly the ultimate Next Big Thing in the history of computing, AI has been the dream of computer scientists since 1950 - when Alan Turing introduced the Turing test to test a machine's capability to participate in human-like conversation. In the context of the Web, AI means making intelligent machines. In that sense, it has some things in common with the Semantic Web vision.
We've only begun to scratch the surface of AI on the Web. Amazon.com has attempted to introduce aspects of AI with Mechanical Turk, their task management service. It enables computer programs to co-ordinate the use of human intelligence to perform tasks which computers are unable to do. Since its launch on 2 November 2005, Mechanical Turk has gradually built up a following - there is a forum for "Turkers" called Turker Nation, which appears to have light-to-medium level patronage. However we reported in January that Mturk isn't being used as much as the initial hype period in Nov-Dec 05.
Nevertheless, AI has a lot of promise on the Web. AI techniques are being used in "search 2.0" companies like Hakia and Powerset. Numenta is an exciting new company by tech legend Jeff Hawkins, which is attempting to build a new, brain-like computing paradigm - with neural networks and cellular automata. In english this means that Numenta is trying to enable computers to tackle problems that come easy to us humans, like recognizing faces or seeing patterns in music. But since computers are much faster than humans when it comes to computation, we hope that new frontiers will be broken - enabling us to solve the problems that were unreachable before.
3. Virtual Worlds
Second Life gets a lot of mainstream media attention as a future Web system. But at a recent Supernova panel that Sean Ammirati attended, the discussion touched on many other virtual world opportunities. The following graphic summarizes it well:

Looking at Korea as an example, as the 'young generation' grows up and infrastructure is built out, virtual worlds will become a vibrant market all over the world over the next 10 years.
It's not just about digital life, but also making our real life more digital. As Alex Iskold explained, on one hand we have the rapid rise of Second Life and other virtual worlds. On the other we are beginning to annotate our planet with digital information, via technologies like Google Earth.
4. Mobile
Mobile Web is another Next Big Thing on slow boil. It's already big in parts of Asia and Europe, and it received a kick in the US market this year with the release of Apple's iPhone. This is just the beginning. In 10 years time there will be many more location-aware services available via mobile devices; such as getting personalized shopping offers as you walk through your local mall, or getting map directions while driving your car, or hooking up with your friends on a Friday night. Look for the big Internet companies like Yahoo and Google to become key mobile portals, alongside the mobile operators.
Companies like Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, Palm, Blackberry and Microsoft have been active in the Mobile Web for years now, but one of the main issues with Mobile Web has always been usability. The iPhone has a revolutionary UI that makes it easier for users to browse the Web, using zooming, pinching and other methods. Also, as Alex Iskold noted, the iPhone is a strategy that may expand Apple's sphere of influence, from web browsing to social networking and even possibly search.
So even despite the iPhone hype, in the US at least (and probably other countries when it arrives) the iPhone will probably be seen in 10 years time as the breakthrough Mobile Web device.
5. Attention Economy
The Attention Economy is a marketplace where consumers agree to receive services in exchange for their attention. Examples include personalized news, personalized search, alerts and recommendations to buy. The Attention Economy is about the consumer having choice - they get to choose where their attention is 'spent'. Another key ingredient in the attention game is relevancy. As long as the consumer sees relevant content, he/she is going to stick around - and that creates more opportunities to sell.
Expect to see this concept become more important to the Web's economy over the next decade. We're already seeing it with the likes of Amazon and Netflix, but there is a lot more opportunity yet to explore from startups.

Image from The Attention Economy: An Overview, by Alex Iskold
6. Web Sites as Web Services
Alex Iskold wrote in March that as more and more of the Web is becoming remixable, the entire system is turning into both a platform and the database. Major web sites are going to be transformed into web services - and will effectively expose their information to the world. Such transformations are never smooth - e.g. scalability is a big issue and legal aspects are never simple. But, said Alex, it is not a question of if web sites become web services, but when and how.
The transformation will happen in one of two ways. Some web sites will follow the example of Amazon, del.icio.us and Flickr and will offer their information via a REST API. Others will try to keep their information proprietary, but it will be opened via mashups created using services like Dapper, Teqlo and Yahoo! Pipes. The net effect will be that unstructured information will give way to structured information - paving the road to more intelligent computing.
Note that we can also see this trend play out currently with widgets and especially Facebook in 2007. Perhaps in 10 years time the web services landscape will be much more open, because the 'walled garden' problem is still with us in 2007.

Image from Web 3.0: When Web Sites Become Web Services, by Alex Iskold
7. Online Video / Internet TV
This is a trend that has already exploded on the Web - but you still get the sense there's a lot more to come yet. In October 2006 Google acquired the hottest online video property on the planet, YouTube. Later on that same month, news came out that the founders of Kazaa and Skype were building an Internet TV service, nicknamed The Venice Project (later named Joost). In 2007, YouTube continues to dominate. Meanwhile Internet TV services are slowly getting off the ground.
Our network blog last100 has an excellent overview of the current Internet TV landscape, with reviews of 8 Internet TV apps. Read/WriteWeb's Josh Catone also reviewed 3 of them - Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo.
It's fair to say that in 10 years time, Internet TV will be totally different to what it is today. Higher quality pictures, more powerful streaming, personalization, sharing, and much more - it's all coming over the next decade. Perhaps the big question is: how will the current mainstream TV networks (NBC, CNN, etc) adapt?

Zattoo, from Internet Killed The Television Star: Reviews of Joost, Babelgum, Zattoo, and More, by Josh Catone
8. Rich Internet Apps
As the current trend of hybrid web/desktop apps continues, expect to see RIA (rich internet apps) continue to increase in use and functionality. Adobe's AIR platform (Adobe Integrated Runtime) is one of the leaders, along with Microsoft with its Windows Presentation Foundation. Also in the mix is Laszlo with its open source OpenLaszlo platform and there are several other startups offering RIA platforms. Let's not forget also that Ajax is generally considered to be an RIA - it remains to be seen though how long Ajax lasts, or whether there will be a '2.0'.
As Ryan Stewart wrote for Read/WriteWeb back in April 2006 (well before he joined Adobe), "Rich Internet Apps allow sophisticated effects and transitions that are important in keeping the user engaged. This means developers will be able to take the amazing changes in the Web for granted and start focusing on a flawless experience for the users. It is going to be an exciting time for anyone involved in building the new Web, because the interfaces are finally catching up with the content."
The past year has proven Ryan right, with Adobe and Microsoft duking it out with RIA technologies. And there's a lot more innovation to happen yet, so in 10 years time I can't wait to see what the lay of the RIA land is!
9. International Web
As of 2007, the US is still the major market in the Web. But in 10 years time, things might be very different. China is often touted as a growth market, but other countries with big populations will also grow - India and African nations for example.
For most web 2.0 apps and websites (R/WW included), the US market makes up over 50% of their users. Indeed, comScore reported in November 2006 that 3/4 of traffic to top websites is international. comScore said that 14 of the top 25 US Web properties now attract more visitors from outside the US than from within. That includes the top 5 US properties - Yahoo! Sites, Time Warner Network, Microsoft, Google Sites, and eBay.
However, it is still early days and the revenues are not big in international markets at this point. In 10 years time, revenue will probably be flowing from the International Web.
10. Personalization
Personalization has been a strong theme in 2007, particularly with Google. Indeed Read/WriteWeb did a feature week on Personalizing Google. But you can see this trend play out among a lot of web 2.0 startups and companies - from last.fm to MyStrands to Yahoo homepage and more.
What can we expect over the next decade? Recently we asked Sep Kamvar, Lead Software Engineer for Personalization at Google, whether there will be a 'Personal PageRank' system in the future. He replied:
"We have various levels of personalization. For those who are signed up for Web History, we have the deepest personalization, but even for those who are not signed up for Web History, we personalize your results based on what country you are searching from. As we move forward, personalization will continue to be a gradient; the more you share with Google, the more tailored your results will be."
If nothing else, it'll be fascinating to track how Google uses personalization over the coming years - and how it deals with the privacy issues.
Conclusion
We've covered a lot of ground in this post, so tell us know what you think of our predictions. What other Web trends do you forsee over the next decade?